Kozloduy Economic Centre

KOZLODUY ECONOMIC CENTER

• INTRODUCTION | Key indicators for the Kozloduy economic center

• COMPOSITION AND LABOR MIGRATION

The Kozloduy Centre is composed of Kozloduy mu­nicipality as its core and the neighboring municipali­ties of Hayredin, Mizia, Oryahovo and Valchedrum as its periphery. Compared to the previous edition of the study (2017), the center has expanded by add­ing Valchedrum. The daily labor migration from the four municipalities to the core exceeds 1,000 people, with the largest number from the Mizia municipality – almost 600 people, or 33% of all employees. There appears to be little potential for future expansion of the center, as outside of these municipalities the highest proportion of incoming workers to Kozloduy are from Byala Slatina – 3.8% of all its employees.

• ECONOMY AND INVESTMENT

In 2021, production value in the Kozloduy Econom­ic center reached 3.2 billion BGN, or 72,900 BGN per capita – the highest value of this indicator in the whole country. This reflects mostly the atypi­cal structure of the local economy, in which almost all the value added is created by the production of electricity at the Kozloduy NPP. Outside the core, the largest peripheral economy is that of Valchedrum, with agriculture being the leading sector in all four municipalities, generating more than half of the val­ue added. Besides the nuclear power plant, which in 2021 had 3,700 workers and 2.7 billion BGN in rev­enue, and its affiliated company Atomenergoremont which employs another 814 people, larger employ­ers include the general hospital in Kozloduy, as well as several industrial enterprises and agricultural producers.

Foreign investment is practically absent in the eco­nomic center, according to NSI non-confidential data. Investment activity in 2021 was also relatively weak, with total expenditure on FTA acquisition in that year amounting to 82 million BGN – the low­est value among all the 16 economic centers of the country. Expenditures for the purchase of machin­ery, land and buildings were distributed relatively evenly, with 31 million BGN in the Kozloduy munici­pality, 26 million BGN in Valchedrum, 11.5 million BGN in Mizia, and 10.3 million BGN in Oryahovo. Outside the core of the economic center, almost all investment is concentrated in the agricultural sec­tor. The Kozloduy center has the lowest export earn­ings in the non-financial sector in 2021 – 36.4 million BGN. However, this does not include the electricity produced by the Kozloduy NPP and exported out of the country – if the nuclear plant was included in the accounts, the center would most likely be among the export leaders.

• LABOR MARKET

Against the backdrop of rapid recovery in all other centers, Kozloduy’s constituent municipalities still had very high unemployment in 2022. The center’s average is 18.7% of the population aged 15–64. In Kozloduy municipality the share of the unemployed is 9%, but in Hayredin it reaches 1/3 of the working-age population, and in Valchedrum it exceeds 30%. Unemployment problems appear to be structural, as most of the unemployed are in the group of the long-term unemployed registered in the labor of­fices for over a year: in Hayredin they are 19% of the working-age population, in Valchedrum – 16%, in the Kozloduy municipality – 3.5%. The center has significant problems with youth unemployment, too: the share of the unemployed among the population under the age of 29 exceeds 10% in most municipali­ties.

At the same time, the employment rate is the low­est among the economic centers at 49% according to 2021 Census data. Employment rates are signifi­cantly lower in the peripheral municipalities, with the lowest figure in Valchedrum – 38%, but even the core’s rate is not particularly high – 58%. Most em­ployees are concentrated in the Kozloduy munici­pality – 7,000 people, with the leading sector being energy production and agriculture playing a major role in the peripheral municipalities. Over the last 5 years, the local labor market has been expanding, with the number of employed people increasing by 4.1%, compared to 2017.

The Kozloduy center has seen a moderate growth of 42% in average salaries over the last 5 years, to a gross average of 1,693 BGN per month, with only the center around the capital performing better on this indicator. Significantly higher are monthly salaries in Kozloduy municipality – 2,682 BGN in 2021, one of the highest municipal salary levels in the country.

• HUMAN RESOURCES AND WORKFORCE

Between the last two censuses, the Kozloduy cen­ter recorded the fastest population decline among all the 16 economic centers in the country (–20.5% within the decade). With 44,000 residents, it is also the smallest center based on population, and 18 thousand of them are in the core. The center has a relatively low share of working-age (15–64) people – 61.4% or 27,000 people, with 12,000 of them in the Kozloduy municipality. Against this background, ageing indicators are not particularly unfavorable, especially compared to other parts of northwestern Bulgaria, as the share of the population over 65 is 24%, though in the peripheral municipalities it is sig­nificantly higher.

Kozloduy is one of the two centers in the country, alongside Sliven–Yambol, which are losing popula­tion as a result of migration processes, with a net migration rate of –0.1‰ in 2022. In fact, migration is relatively balanced, with some municipalities like Oryahovo and Mizia gaining population. However, the natural growth rate is highly negative, with a bal­ance between mortality and birth rates of –15.3‰ on average for the center, though slightly higher in the core (–7.2‰). These indicators confirm the se­rious demographic obstacles to Kozloduy’s further economic development, especially outside the en­ergy sector.

The educational structure of the center poses simi­lar challenges. The share of university graduates among the population aged 7 and older is 16.7% – the lowest among all centers – and equal to that of Kardzhali. At the same time, 1/3 of the population has primary or lower education, and the illiteracy rate according to the 2021 census is 1.2%. The edu­cational structure of the core is slightly more favor­able, but even there the share of the poorly educated is high, and in the periphery, the share of university graduates is significantly lower than the average for the center. Students’ performance is not particularly promising, either, with the center recording the low­est scores in the NEA in mathematics at the end of grade 7, as well as some of the lowest matriculation examination scores in BLL in the country.