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Each of the top 10 cities in Bulgaria has been losing population over the past 10 years. This is evident from the final data from the 2021 population census. Until now, it was known that the population was decreasing by over 800,000 people, but the breakdown by specific locations was missing. The latest data provides an opportunity to examine the development of the major cities, which concentrate a significant portion of the country's economic and social energy, as well as nearly 40% of the population. In this case, we set aside the view of regions and municipalities and focus specifically on the data for the cities. For the first time in the history of censuses, all major cities are losing population. In the period from 2011 to 2021, the top 10 cities in the country have lost over 6% of their population.

The ranking of the top 10 cities in Bulgaria can be divided into four groups. These are 1) the capital Sofia, clearly the largest city in the country and the only one with a population over 1 million people – this threshold was crossed back in the 1980s; 2) Plovdiv and Varna, which go together and maintain populations over 300,000 people – also since the 1980s; 3) Burgas, Ruse, and Stara Zagora, which continue to have populations clearly above 100,000 people; and 4) Pleven, Sliven, Dobrich, and Pernik, which have populations below 100,000 people and complete the top ten. Let's take a closer look at each of these groups.

The population of Sofia remains around 1.2 million people.

The first place is clear, as the 2021 census records a population in Sofia of nearly 1.2 million people. However, the data for Sofia reveals a surprising trend, as the population of the capital city is not increasing and even slightly decreasing (by around 20,000 people). This development is triggered by at least three factors. The first is the aging population in Bulgaria, which is now exerting pressure on the population in the largest cities downwards – even if young and active people are attracted, as is the case with Sofia, natural processes in the aging population begin to prevail. The second factor is related to the fact that the scale of mechanical growth in the capital has already diminished, meaning that the influx of population is not at the levels observed at the beginning of the century. The third factor is the Pandemic, which not only worsened natural population growth – with a high mortality rate in 2020 and 2021 – but also reversed migration processes. The major cities (including Sofia) experienced a population outflow toward their peripheries just before the census. This is true only for 2020, but it will take years of positive migration to restore the effect of the one-time correction during the pandemic. Apart from that, the decline in Sofia's population is not unprecedented – it also occurred during the period 1992-2001 when the censuses again recorded a decrease in the capital's population, mainly as a result of opening borders.

Plovdiv maintains the second position ahead of Varna, but both cities are losing population.

One of the big questions in this census was whether Varna could surpass Plovdiv and take the position of the second-largest city. The difference between the two cities in 2011 was extremely small – only 3-4 thousand people, creating expectations for a possible change in the ranking. Interestingly, up until now, Varna was the only city that consistently increased its population with each census, while Plovdiv failed to grow its population in several consecutive censuses. However, the 2021 census showed that both cities are losing population, with a magnitude of 18-24 thousand people, and Plovdiv remains in second place with a population of nearly 320,000 people compared to around 311,000 people in Varna. Despite both cities also attracting young and active people over the past 10 years, sustained negative natural processes, as well as the effects of the pandemic, including the outflow of people to the periphery in 2020, ultimately lead to a decline in population.

Burgas falls below 200,000 people, while Ruse and Stara Zagora are now within the range of 120,000-125,000 people.

The top six of our largest cities traditionally include Burgas, Ruse, and Stara Zagora - these are the six cities with a population of over 100,000 people in the country. After the 2021 census, Pleven is officially outside this category after over 40 years of being a city with a population of over 100,000 people. In its peak year (1985), Bulgaria had 10 leading cities with populations over 100,000 people - now only the top six cities remain. Among the three cities that complete the trio, Burgas shows a different trend. Until 2011, it was increasing its population, reaching over 200,000 people. However, now it is experiencing a decline due to a combination of the factors previously mentioned, and the population of the second-largest coastal city has fallen below 190,000 people. Ruse and Stara Zagora, on the other hand, continue to lose population at a significant rate, with declines of 11% and 17% over the past 10 years, respectively. By 2021, the population of both cities is below 125,000 people, with Ruse experiencing a more significant decline in population since the 1990s. This is in line with the challenging demographic trends observed in all Danube cities.

The top 10 is completed by Pleven, Sliven, Dobrich, and Pernik.

Pleven remains in the traditional seventh position but is now outside the 100,000+ population club. The city's population in 2021 is 92,000 people. After Pleven, some cities are similar in scale and proximity to most regional centers - Sliven (80,000 people), Dobrich (74,000 people), and Pernik (68,000 people). Pernik returns to the top 10 after an absence of around 40 years, surpassing Shumen by about 300 people. Haskovo is also very close to the top 10. The commonality among these cities is not just a decrease in population but the significant rate at which it is happening, with a loss of approximately 10-15% of their population over ten years. These cities not only experience a clear natural decline but also a mechanical outflow of population. While the first six cities have different examples, the cities outside the top six consistently lose young and active people over the years.

Migration is the litmus test for urban development.

The census data confirm the observation that Bulgarian cities are experiencing a significant and widespread population decline. It is difficult to speak of genuine socio-economic progress in the regions when even the largest cities in the country are consistently losing population. While natural processes are to some extent responsible due to the deteriorating age structure, migration processes are the ones that most clearly determine how attractive a city is, as well as its potential for development - whether in education, the economy, or the broader social sphere. Sofia, Plovdiv, and Varna are the three cities that, overall, have managed to attract people over the last ten years, excluding the pandemic's effect on the population outflow to peripheral areas in 2020. For the other cities, this process is either unsustainable or, in some cases, non-existent.