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The external assessments, which are already conducted in four stages of the school education system - after the fourth, seventh, tenth, and twelfth grades - cannot provide a complete and accurate diagnosis of the quality and problems within it. Nevertheless, they offer a simple and clear evaluation of at least one aspect of students' achievements. The results after the seventh grade this year have shown a widespread decline compared to the previous year, with significant regional differences, but a slight improvement, at least in mathematics, after the tenth grade. On the other hand, during the 2021/22 academic year, there has been a universal and significant decline in the matriculation exams, which are of great importance for the further realization of twelfth-grade students in higher education.

The data on the results of the matriculation exams in Bulgarian language and literature in 2022 at the regional level, obtained by IME through the Access to Public Information Act, indicate significantly lower grades in all parts of the country. No region has registered an increase compared to 2021. The decline is by no means uniform across different regions, with the average grades decreasing most visibly in Razgrad - by a whole 43 hundredths, which places the region last in the country with a "Good" grade (3.53). There is also a significant decline in Shumen and Dobrich, by 40 hundredths each, as well as in Haskovo (-38 hundredths) and Pleven (-36 hundredths), with these regions also ranking towards the bottom of the ranking. Conversely, the highest grades are in the traditional leaders Sofia (the capital), Smolyan, and Varna. However, it is striking that in the case of Smolyan, often cited as an example of success in structuring and managing secondary education in Bulgaria, there is also a significant decline on an annual basis - by 32 hundredths of a grade, placing the region only slightly ahead of Plovdiv and Varna.

Similarly, there is a widespread decline in the results of students who failed the maturity exams. Here, too, there are significant differences between different regions, with the highest percentage of failures recorded in the first session of the Bulgarian language and literature exam in Haskovo (28% of participating students), Shumen, and Razgrad (27% each), as well as in Kardzhali and Pleven (26% each). The regions with the weakest performance in many cases double or triple the number of students who failed the maturity exam, and in six of them, the increase is over 15 percentage points within one year. Even in regions with the lowest share of weak grades, the increase is many times higher - in Sofia (the capital), it rises from 1.8% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2022, and in Smolyan, from 2.4% to 9.6%.

When comparing the results from different editions of the maturity exam, we should keep in mind that they are not fully equivalent - there are always certain differences in the level of difficulty, which inevitably affect the final results of the students. This is particularly true for the current edition, which introduces significant changes in the exam's structure and evaluation. The prolonged period of distance learning during the Covid pandemic also plays a role, significantly worsening access to education for the disadvantaged and children in unfavorable family environments.

Despite the comparability issues, based on the data from the new matriculation exams, it can be concluded that the inequalities in the educational system between the regions in Bulgaria, which also lead to a significant gap in student achievements, persist and even deepen. The dynamics are also important – while in some regions there is a 15-point increase in the proportion of weak grades, in others it is only 5 points. This shows that in places with poorly functioning school education, many more children have barely passed the exam so far, and a slight increase in criteria pushes them below the passing threshold. This, in turn, emphasizes the need for reform aimed at improving the educational process and the quality of education, not only in elite schools but also among the lowest-performing ones today.

The significant rise in weak grades also has practical consequences. On the one hand, many more students will have to attend the second session of the matriculation exam, which requires additional resources for its organization. However, the more important effect is on the students themselves – for the least prepared among them, the real risk of not completing their secondary education increases, which poses a significant barrier to their employability. This creates problems for higher education institutions as well, as they already face difficulties in filling the announced student positions due to negative demographic trends, and lower average grades on the matriculation exam will mean even easier access to the specialties for which they are decisive.

Of course, it is too early to assess the long-term trends in matriculation exams based solely on one year of sharp decline, especially when we consider that in the previous few years, both the average grades in the regions and the proportion of weak grades remained relatively stable. However, these significantly weaker results once again highlight the need for a long-overdue reform that addresses issues in the quality of school education and the significant disparities between individual schools and localities.