Multidimensional Analysis of Regional Development
Alexander Tzvetkov PhD, Regiostat
The goal of the multidimensional analysis of regional development, using Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) is to track and analyze the region’s common socio-economic development during the 2008-2010 period, using a system of indicators grouped in seven categories: economy, infrastructure, demography, education, healthcare, environment and social environment.
Two “fake regions” have been established for the purposes of this analysis. One is a “perfect” region, which scores best in all indicators in the same time. The other one is a “worst” region, which scores worst. These “fake regions” are used as reference points and benchmarks for assessing the development of the 28 regions during this period. The current state and development of all 28 regions is assessed as positive or negative in comparison with these benchmarks. Afterwards the regions have been grouped in clusters, formed by Kohonen’s self-organizing maps. This allows us to compare all regions simultaneously showing the degree of difference, the development direction – whether there is a growth or a decline in development, the dynamics of the said development and the presence/lack of cohesion between the regions.
The main conclusion from the analysis is that there is no cohesion developing between the regions. On the contrary – there is a region – Sofia (capital) – which stands out among all the rest in terms of socio-economic development and this difference is increasing during the research period.
The common socio-economic state of Sofia (capital) is the best, as can be seen by its position closest to the “perfect” region on the map. Varna, Burgas and Plovdiv regions are also close to it, but despite their relatively good development, they fall far behind Sofia (capital). This is depicted by the color on the cluster border between Sofia (capital) and the three other regions – a highly-saturated color, showing a big difference.
As per the development of the economy, the highly-saturated color in the lower left corner, where Sofia (capital) is located shows that it is the most developed. Varna follows, but even though it is the second in the country, it falls far behind Sofia (capital). The worst-developed regions are Silistra, Razgrad, Vidin and Shumen, since the color of the map in their location is not saturated.
Gabrovo has the most intensive dynamics when it comes to the development of infrastructure – 2010 is highly saturated in comparison with 2008.
Vidin, Lovech and Montana have the worst demographic state during the entire period – and the least saturated portions of the map. Gabrovo has very pronounced and worsening negative trends during the period.
The regions with the worst education systems are Sliven, Targovishte, Razgrad and Silistra (least saturated on the map).
The rather pale color of the maps demonstrates that Razgrad and Targovishte have the worst healthcare during the entire period.
The region with the most environmental issues during the entire period (as can be seen by the lowly saturated color on the map) is Stara Zagora. The rather saturated color on the map, showing good environmental conditions, denotes Gabrovo as the leading region in the country in this respect during the three analyzed years.
Unlike the other categories (economy, for instance), the social environment indicators have a more pronounced dynamics. The color saturation on the map shows that in 2008 Haskovo, Pernik and Gabrovo had the best social environment in the country. However, they demonstrate negative development trends, because in the following years their color of the map is less saturated.
The project “Regional Profiles: Indicators of Development” is carried out with the financial support of the America for Bulgaria Foundation.
