The recovery in 2021 rearranged the ranking of regional economies
Regional development in Bulgaria remains highly uneven, and the recovery from the COVID crisis in 2021 has reshuffled the ranking, especially among the least developed regions. This is evident from the published data on the gross domestic product (GDP) at the regional level by the National Statistical Institute (NSI) for 2021.
The economy of the capital city remains the largest among the regions in the country, accounting for 43% of the total GDP produced in Bulgaria, compared to 7.4% in Plovdiv and 6% in Varna. The economies of Vidin, Silistra, and Smolyan remain the smallest. In nominal terms, Sofia's GDP exceeds 59 billion leva, and Plovdiv is the only other region with a GDP exceeding 10 billion leva, although Varna is likely to join this group in the near future.
There are no particular surprises in the GDP per capita leaders. The capital city is at the top with over 45 thousand leva per capita, followed by Stara Zagora with 20 thousand leva per capita and Sofia Province with 19 thousand leva per capita. In 2021, the influence of the energy sector is especially visible, as it experiences significant growth in the favorable international market environment, thereby pushing up the levels of economic development in Stara Zagora and Vratsa – a process that continues in 2022.
However, what is more interesting is the distribution of regions with the lowest level of economic development, where the varying degree of recovery from the COVID crisis leads to significant reshuffling. Vidin, which has been the least developed region in terms of GDP per capita for a decade, now surpasses Haskovo, Silistra, Sliven, and Pernik. However, in practice, the differences are tiny – the 10 least developed regions have a GDP per capita ranging around 2 thousand leva, so it would not be surprising if there are further reshufflings in the coming years. We should also note that the data presented here do not yet consider the population census – and the reported additional population decline, especially in certain regions, will lead to an upward correction in the average GDP per capita.
Unlike the crisis year of 2020, in 2021, there is not a single region that does not exhibit economic growth. However, growth is also highly uneven – while Sofia adds 6.3 thousand leva GDP per capita, Haskovo and Kardzhali only grow by mere 600 leva per capita. Among the regions with the fastest recovery is Burgas, which adds 4.4 thousand leva per capita but the collapse of tourism in 2020 "erased" years of economic development, and its recovery will take more than a year.
Gross domestic product is by no means the only indicator viable for measuing and analyzing regional development. However, its dynamics in the year following the crisis clearly distinguish the regions with the most flexible local economies that can quickly recover from the impact of the coronavirus and restrictions and return to growth. Successful models of economic development are also evident – the rapid growth of services in the capital city, the energy centers of Stara Zagora and Vratsa, and the industrial economies of Sofia Province, Gabrovo, and Plovdiv.
