Which municipalities may soon be left without a school
The presence of a school in each municipality is considered crucial for its existence. There are many reasons for this - we associate schools with children, future, and prospects, while their absence implies aging, stagnation, and lack of opportunities. Education is a key public service with a central role in municipal budgets, management, and life. However, data from the 2021 census show that over the past ten years, almost all municipalities in Bulgaria have experienced a decrease in population, with some seeing a decline of over 30%. This inevitably means a decrease in the number of children in their school years. How will this affect the provision of educational services?
In recent years, the number of municipalities with only one school has increased from 38 in the 2017/2018 academic year to 44 in the last academic year. These account for 17% of Bulgarian municipalities. Population decline is the main, although not the only, reason for the decrease in the number of schools in municipalities. Another significant reason is the financial model that incentivizes fuller classrooms and, consequently, fewer and larger schools. This, in itself, is not necessarily a bad thing - larger schools in Bulgaria can concentrate more resources, which can be directed towards achieving better results and improving the educational environment for children.
How are these municipalities distributed across Bulgaria?
The majority of municipalities with one school are located in the Sofia region, as well as in northwestern Bulgaria. The proximity to Sofia allows families with young children to move to the capital in search of better education, while in Northwest Bulgaria, the demographic crisis is most severe. We must note that a lot of these schools are part of the "protected schools" mechanism, which guarantees that they will not be closed if there is no other school nearby providing the same service. This means that municipalities with one school that is protected will keep it in the future.
If the demographic trend does not reverse, there will soon be municipalities in Bulgaria without any schools. Which ones are most at risk? According to our assessment, these are the municipalities of Novo Selo, Suhindol, and Alfatar. They have only one school each, all of which are unprotected and with fewer than 100 students. The schools in Suhindol (90 students) and Novo Selo (63 students) are average-sized, and during the last academic year, a total of 11 students completed their secondary education there. The school in Alfatar is primary, with 98 students. The future of these schools is at risk, especially if the municipalities do not have the financial capacity to support them. Considering that these are relatively small municipalities in terms of population - according to the latest census in 2021, there are respectively 2,000 people in Suhindol, 2,278 people in Alfatar, and 2,375 people in Novo Selo - we can assume that the municipality has limited ability to sustain a significant public service with its resources for an extended period.
In the next category, we have Bregovo, Kula, Vetrino, Hitrino, and Letnitsa - again, municipalities with one unprotected school, but with 100 to 200 students. For them, it will be crucial to how the school network develops in neighboring municipalities and whether they can attract students.
At the moment, this problem does not have a visible dimension or a clear solution, but it is important to consider the criteria that a self-governing community and territory should meet - as mentioned earlier, some municipalities do not meet the formal population criterion according to the law on the administrative-territorial organization. And soon, there may be municipalities that will not have anyone to provide their most essential public service.
