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In 2019, over 55 thousand students took their 7^th grade State Matriculation Examinations (SMEs) in mathematics. The exams are mandatory at this stage in Bulgarian student’s education, hence the large figure. When disaggregated by municipality, the results of these country-wide examinations spark concern for the youth of Bulgaria. In almost every municipality in the country, grades achieved in SMEs in mathematics are far lower than those for SMEs in Bulgarian Literature; not a single municipality saw an average grade of 4.50 out of 6.00 or above in mathematics. In fact, an average grade exceeding 4.00 was not seen in all but 10 municipalities, with Sofia, Varna and Burgas barely making it above the threshold.

The decline in interest in mathematics becomes more evident in the next round of SMEs - taken after the 12^th grade. At this stage in their education, students are not obligated to take an SME in mathematics, as they can instead opt to take a different subject, such as a foreign language. In 2019, almost 50 thousand students held an SME in Bulgarian literature. Out of those 50 thousand – how many do you think chose to take mathematics as their second subject? A grand total of 2255 – that is how many students bravely elected to take the mathematics examination right before their prom night. Roughly put, that is approximately 1 in 20 students. Last year across 161 municipalities, not a single 12^th grade student opted to take an SME in mathematics.

A Well Prepared Few

It is worth noting that the Mathematics SMEs taken after the 12^th grade attract only the best prepared students. Out of 104 municipalities with students taking the exam, 45 boasted an average grade exceeding 5.00 out of 6.00. Unlike for their 7^th grade counterparts, the 12^th grade Mathematics SMEs exceeded Bulgarian Literature SMEs in average grades in almost all cases. This comes as no surprise, as since the Mathematics SME is made optional, those who chose it are only those with the appropriate level of enthusiasm and ability.

The big picture is clear. When all students are put through the mathematics exam after the 7^th grade, the results are greatly disappointing as the majority of students are underprepared. That changes when instead of all students, only those who actually want to take the mathematics exam – one in 20 12^th graders - are put through it. This yields significantly better results. A trend worth noting is that the number of students taking the Mathematics SME after the 12^th grade is declining annually, with a 200-student decrease seen only over the last year.

Now, in no way does this condemn the learning of languages, or namely the taking of language-based SMEs, as negative. On the contrary, the fact that the SME in English is the most popular elective for 12^th graders is likely to reflect their tendency to want to study abroad. However, the decline in “mathematicians” – those who feel prepared and motivated to pursue mathematical disciplines belong high school – will one day hinder the economy, given that mathematics is crucial for careers in the IT and technology sector – one of the fastest growing sectors in Bulgaria. Moreover, it is within sectors such as this one that the country needs more high-performing students.  

Which schools take the crown in mathematics?

The high school which, by tradition, sends the most amount of 12^th graders to the Mathematics SME is the Varna’s High School for Mathematics “Dr Peter Beron”, which saw 148 students attending the exam in 2019, achieving an impressive 5.46 grade average. At the school itself, around 1,200 students receive schooling in mathematical disciplines predominantly, with current plans to realise the building of a new campus for engineering and natural sciences.

Another contender for the crown is the Sofia High School of Matehmatics “Paisyi Hilendarski”, with an average grade of a near perfect 5.80 among 141 students taking the SME in Mathematics after the 12^th grade. Other notable names include the “Akademik Kiril Popov” High School of Matehmatics, with 100 examined and given a grade average of 5.37, and the High School for Exact Science and Mathematics “Akademik Nikola Obreshkov”, sending 91 students to the exams and achieving a 5.65 average grade. 

The high schools with a combined focus on mathematics and exact sciences remain strong, however they gradually deviate from mathematics in favour of other disciplines. 2015 saw the number of 12th graders in high schools for Science and Mathematics taking an SME in Mathematics expectedly exceed those taking an English language exam. Such was the case with the Science and Mathematics high schools in Burgas, Blagoevgrad, Veliko Tarnovo, Vratsa, Gabrovo, Kyustendil, Haskovo and others. Conversely, in 2019, the balance was tipped in the other direction, with those taking English outnumbering the mathematicians.

In reality, there remain only about 4-5 high schools in which at least half of the students elect mathematics as one of their SME subjects.

What is the value added?

Currently, the Bulgarian economy is sending clear signals indicating a need for re-orientation towards the higher technology sector, especially towards the IT sphere and within Research and Development. Moreover, the same is seen in industries shying away from manual labour and more towards capital-intensive activities. Such a transformation requires a number of well-trained staff capable of participating in the process of technological transfer within the dynamic Bulgarian enterprises. To this end, fundamental mathematical knowledge is an integral part of this development. While linguistic knowledge is also useful, other specialist expertise is also needed.

And yet, at this stage, it appears that the Bulgarian education system fails to prepare students for this needed re-orientation, and in certain cases actually turns students off from studying exact sciences, in favour of studying humanities, economics and law instead. While those social science disciplines are still being preferred at elite institutions, the gap in IT technologies and applied sciences has become exacerbated in recent years. The ICT sector is attempting to bridge this gap in public education by creating its own academies and partnering with active educational institutions.

Unfortunately, the lack of a well-rounded educational foundation in mathematics is an obstacle in the way of such efforts. Currently, the school system places overwhelming emphasis on grammatical literacy and working with literature. It is crucial to exert the same emphasis on mathematics and natural science education. And who knows – it might have been that some of today’s lawyers and psychologists would have made better engineers or programmers, had equality in opportunities enlightened them to this path.

Over the past week, with the support of the IME, the Sofia Municipal Agency for Privatization and Investment analysed the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the Bulgarian capital’s economy. They extended their analysis to include potential measures to remedy those impacts. Here we present the most important conclusions concerning the economic aspect of the analysis and provide additional comments.  

Sofia’s reaction to the crisis is notably distinct from that of the rest of Bulgaria, owed to the capital’s economy being significantly different from that of other municipalities. In general terms, Sofia’s economy outperforms others in the size of its service sector, which comes at the expense of having a less developed manufacturing and agriculture sector. It is also worth considering tourism, which, despite being one of the presently growing sectors, is not a crucial player in the capital’s economy. Similarly, the economic dominance of the capital is determined by the large share of trade present in the total volume of its economy, which is not particularly affected.

In 2019, Sofia was hitting various labour market records. According to the latest data, employment rates of the capital’s working age population exceeded 78%, and unemployment rates had fallen to 1.6% (a little over 11,000 unemployed in population terms). However, with the inevitable economic contraction experienced by Sofia at the start of 2020, it appears that such labor records are matters of the past. Initial analyses by the IME reveal that about 86,000 employees, comprising over 10% of the labour force, were severely hit by the crisis. This figure includes 35,000 people within the almost completely inactive hospitality sector – mainly hotels and restaurants – and 10,000 within the cultural sector, comprised mainly of cultural and sport activities.

Undoubtedly, the most affected branch of the capital's economy is tourism. Although, it is a rather small branch - according to the latest calculations, it accounts for about 2.5% of the capital's economy, measured by value added. The negative impacts on the sector, namely the dramatic decrease in manifest themselves along two dimensions: the shrinking income of potential tourists and their increased fear of travel. Tourist associations’ forecasts, as quoted by SOAPI, set the maximum potential losses for the economy of Sofia, in case of a long-term quarantine, at over BGN 175 million. An additional adversity is created by the fact that a large portion of employees of the tourism sector are lower-skilled and lower-educated, which impedes their potential re-assimilation into sectors outside tourism. When assessing the risks for the tourism sector, it is important to remember that Sofia hosts the biggest international airport in Bulgaria, which will be seeing less and less traffic passing through. 

Trade is the largest sector of the capital's economy, forming almost one fourth of its entire volume, and employing 180,000 people. At this stage, the impacts on the retail aspect of trade, namely dealing with sales of food and drinks, seem to be relatively weak; anecdotal evidence show that, against the background of the transition of many companies to remote work, sales of equipment were also not heavily impacted. Conversely, we have every reason to expect a decline in trade of luxury goods (and many non-food products) in the near future. It is also worth noting the change in the sales model of many retail firms – evidence points to an increased demand for online purchases, and accordingly - a significant increase in sales of companies that use this business model, especially in food. This rings especially true for Sofia, as it has the highest Internet penetration in the country and the highest density of providers.

The flexibility of Sofia’s economy is owed largely to adequately developed ICT sector, as well as to outsourcing of services; put together, their weight in the capital's economy is up to par with that of the trade sector. Against the background of limited social contacts and depleted mobility, this sector is most easily able to move to a model of remote work and to resume its functions. The risks to which these sectors are exposed stem mainly from the potential decline in software orders amid the global economic crisis, in tandem with the fact that the ICT and outsourcing sectors in Sofia operate almost exclusively by exports, making them particularly vulnerable to economic shocks in Western Europe and USA.

While the picture painted so far may not appear all bad, it is worth noting that freelance professions, which account for a significant portion of the capital’s economy, are exposed to significant risks. They include a range of business and technical services, from lawyers and notaries to architects and business appraisers. The suspension of transactions, and more generally the expected medium-term contraction of new investment initiatives, will exert relatively strong downward pressure on the demand for such services. The same goes for the media and advertising sectors, as advertising budgets are subject to the first cuts in the event of a "belt-tightening" approach by businesses.

It is harder to predict the impacts on sectors such as manufacturing, given that their operations depend more on the severity of measures to limit the spread of the virus; for example, tightening of measure to constitute to full quarantine will make the work of the sector virtually impossible. The same applies to the construction sector to a certain extent – while ongoing construction projects are being completed, a delay of new construction projects, as well as relevant repair activities as a result of postponed investments, can be expected.

An important advantage of the capital’s economy is the relatively high capacity of its labour market to accommodate for and take on new unemployed and to account for many emerging vacancies. Predicting how many vacancies will decorate the labour market in a post-pandemic Bulgaira, as well as how many of them will be filled, is purely speculative work. However, until recently, the capital's labour market managed to integrate virtually all workers with relevant education and skills, and its ability to continue to do so will play a key part in Sofia’s post-crisis recovery.

In summary, thanks to the developed sectors within the capital’s economy, namely the services sector, the ICT sector and the trade sector, Sofia fosters high flexibility and is better prepared to face the inevitable blow delivered by the coronavirus pandemic and any resultant restrictive measures. However, this does not mean that the damage, especially in the short term, will not be significant.

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