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Just before the pandemic broke out, we focused on the development of Plovdiv and Varna as the two strongest economic centers in the country after the capital. In recent years, the contest for the title “second most populous Bulgarian city” has emerged as an interesting highlight of their comparative development. In view of the forthcoming census in 2021, and the ongoing socio-economic processes in Plovdiv and Varna, we can shed some light on the dispute.

In the first place, it is important to note that we focus on the city in particular, rather than on the population of the district or municipality. For this purpose, we have used census data from the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), and ongoing observations for the last 10 years. We have not used data from the Head Directorate of Civil Registration and Administrative Service (CRAS) for permanent and current addresses. Despite this being a viable alternative, we chose the longer-term historical order, based on censuses, as our foundation. Population data, however, does not account for the tourist flow, which would be a substantial boost for Varna in the summer season.

The national common sense contends that Plovdiv is the second largest city in Bulgaria. Successive censuses throughout the years verify this claim. For most of the 20^th century, both cities steadily increased their population. Plovdiv maintained its lead, while the greatest difference in the censuses is from 1946, when it almost totals 50 thousand citizens – 123 thousand in Plovdiv versus 77,000 in Varna. The last census from the communist period (conducted 1985) documented incredible development in both cities, all the while the absolute numerical difference remained similar – 342 thousand in Plovdiv compared to 302 thousand in Varna. The transition generated diverging dynamics for both cities.

After the changes, Plovdiv’s population ‘froze’, while Varna’s continued growing. In reality, Varna is probably the only other city apart from Sofia, which has invariably augmented its population in every next census for more than 100 years. Censuses from 1985, 1992, 2001 and 2011 attribute a population of 338-342 thousand to Plovdiv (338 thousand in 2011). At the same time, Varna gradually expanded its population from 302 thousand in 1985 to 334 in 2011. Thus in the last census the difference between the two cities barely reached 3,283 people.

Following the logic of the recent censuses, Varna is projected to overtake Plovdiv in population in the 2021 census. Yet this remains uncertain. The last 10 years have changed the socio-economic trajectory of certain regions, and one of the most explicit changes is the success of Plovdiv. The city ‘under the hills’ managed to restart its growth, and resumed attracting population. This is evident from the economic processes, such as the development of manufacturing in Plovdiv’s periphery, and from the newly opened vacancies in the digital sector. Pro-cultural tendencies also contributed – the emergence and successful development of “Kapana” as the quarter of creative industries, for instance. Plovdiv has always been a strong cultural and manufacturing center, but the last decade’s unambiguously upturning dynamics has “overturned” the city’s demographics.

In the meanwhile, Varna, is not in a position to change the trajectory of its demographics, which is either way supported by the continuous influx of young people, attracted by the “summer capital” of the marine capital and the six universities it houses. Similar to Plovdiv, Varna’s uptake was also supported by a strong manufacturing in the wider periphery of the city, growth in the digital sector, and developments in the cultural sphere.

But how big exactly is the growth of the last 10 years?

Current NIS population data indicate a relatively modest growth in Varna, and a more substantial growth in Plovdiv in the last decade. Hence the expectation Plovdiv will keep its second place. The issue here is, that two consecutive censuses (from 2001 and 2011) reveal, that the pertinent NIS data underestimates Varna’s population and overestimates that of Plovdiv. For instance, in the period 2001-2011, NIS recorded an annual increase in Plovdiv’s population, although the eventual census showed it had slightly shrank compared to 2001.

Everything said so far proves that the contest for the second city is not decided. Varna demonstrates better long-term trends in the last 30 years, but Plovdiv has marked a restart in the last 10, and is also striving ahead. Both cities featured distinguishably good years prior to the pandemic, and are profiting from the dynamics of the digital sector in Bulgaria as well. The effect of the pandemic can play a critical role in this competition – a strong hit on tourism is accompanied with prospective stimulus for migration of citizens employed in the digital sector. On a broader regional scope, however, the rivalry of the two cities is healthy, as it takes away the excessive focus from the capital, and provides alternatives for regional development in the country.

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