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Georgi Vuldzhev*

Bulgaria has been in a state of demographic decline since the 1990’s. Population across the whole country has been progressively shrinking – in the year 2000 it was 8.1 million people, but by 2014 it has declined to 7.2 million.

Of course, the severity of the demographic decline varies across different regions of the country – due to internal migration from scarcely populated areas to more densely populated ones and from underdeveloped to developed ones, the negative effects are being exacerbated in some areas and diminished in others. Considering these differing processes in various parts of the country it is interesting to analyze the dynamic of the size of municipal administrations throughout the years.

For the purpose of this analysis we shall use municipal administrative personnel per 1000 inhabitants as an indicator. By measuring the variations in that number throughout the years we can see how much influence demographic shifts have on the size of municipal administrations.

In this short comparative study we focus on two years – 2010 and 2014. According to the data compiled by NSI and the official reports of the different municipal administrations in the country, during this period total population has declined by 4%, while the total number of municipal personnel stayed almost the same – declining only by 0.1%. This leads to a rise in the number of administrative personnel per 1000 inhabitants from an average of 2.90 in 2010 to 3.02 in 2014.

Source: Official annual reports of the municipalities, NSI, IME’s calculations

As we can see in the table, the districts in which the size of the municipal administration relative to the population is the highest, i.e. we can assume a waste of municipal resources (and consequently – of state resources through state transfers to municipalities) are the same for 2010 and 2014. These provinces are Vidin, Dobrich (without the city itself) Kardzhali, Smolyan and Yambol. The provinces with the lowest number of administrative personnel per 1000 inhabitants in 2010 keep their spot in 2014 as well: Sliven, Ruse, Varna, Stara Zagora, and Pernik. When we take a look at the third column, where we can find the change in the value of the indicator in 2014 as compared to 2010, we notice that the relative size of municipal administrations has declined only in four provinces. These are Yambol (-0.37; -7%), Pleven (-0.19; -6%), Varna (-0.13; -5%), and Sliven (-0.06; - 2%). In all other provinces, the number of administrative personnel per 1000 inhabitants has grown. The provinces where it has grown the most are Lovech (+0.96; +24%); Smolyan (+0.53; +10%), and Blagoevgrad (+0.52; +16%).

It is interesting to also note the size of which particular municipalities underwent the greatest change during the period. On the next two tables you can see exactly this data compared to the shifts in population and the size of the municipal administration in 2014 as compared to 2010.

Source: Official annual reports of the municipalities, NSI, IME’s calculations

It is immediately obvious that the municipalities with the biggest growth in the proportion of local administration size and population size are located in the Burgas province – Sozopol, Sredets, Sungurlare, and Tzarevo. The other two municipalities – Belitsa and Kovachevtsi are located in the provinces Blagoevgrad and Pernik respectively. In five municipalities from the first table the rise in the value of the administrative personnel/1000 inhabitants indicator is caused both by population decline in the municipality and the rising number of employees in the municipal administration. Only in Kovachevtsi is the rise due entirely to the decline in the number of inhabitants and in Belitsa despite the fact that population growth has been positive, the size of the municipal administration has ballooned by 133%!

On the second table we see a very different picture. In all municipalities the number of personnel per 1000 people is lower, with 20% to 40%, despite the poor demographic situation.

Optimally, the rest of the country should be moving in the same direction as the municipalities listed in the last table. The gradual decline in population numbers, combined with the introduction of e-services provided by municipal administrations, suggests that less and less local personnel should be required. The administration has to take steps towards cutting down the numbers of administrative employees, especially in those areas and municipalities where the demographic decline is most serious, and consequently the need for administrative personnel is the lowest.

* Georgi Vuldzhev is an intern at the IME.